Multi-attribute Utility Analysis with Imprecise Information: an Enhanced Decision Support Technique for the Evaluation of Electric Generation Expansion Strategies
J. Pan and S. Rahman
Electric Power Systems Research, vol. 46, 1998, pp.
Multiattribute decision making (MADM) methods have been widely used in electric utility decision problems. This paper presents an enhanced MADM method to support the evaluation of electric generation expansion strategies. The analytical hierarchy process (AHP) is incorporated into the construction procedure of linear additive utility models to facilitate the process of eliciting single utility functions and weighting parameters. The composite utility variances are estimated accounting for individual errors from inaccurate attribute measurements and inconsistent subjective judgments. To support the decision analysis with imprecise information, an appropriate confidence interval is defined to determine the likely range of estimated utility values. Such practice could help the decision maker gain insight into how the imprecise data may affect their choice toward the best solution and how a set of acceptable alternatives may be identified.